Captain America 3, Civil War, and The Future of the Marvel Cinematic Universe

Warning: contains potential spoilers for a number of Marvel Phase Three films.

It’s difficult to qualify any comic book related announcement as a “bombshell” these days. They all stoke a virtually identical amount of outrage and/or excitement on the internet. However, the news that Robert Downey Jr. would be taking on a significant role as Tony Stark in Captain America 3certainly qualifies. And there’s good reason, too...

All signs indicate that Captain America 3 is going to explore some variation on Marvel's Civil Warstoryline. While superhero movies taking direct inspiration (and titles) from the source material has become commonplace recently (see: Captain America: The Winter Soldier and X-Men: Days of Future Past), the presence of Civil War on the schedule (note: this may not be the actual Captain America 3title) will have considerable ramifications for the Marvel Cinematic Universe after May of 2016.

Civil War was a massive comic book event that spanned dozens of Marvel Comics titles between 2006-2007. It is exactly what that title indicates: a civil war between the heroes of the Marvel Universe. On one side, we had Tony Stark, who, with the best of intentions, gets behind a government mandated superhuman registration act in an attempt to get costumed adventurers regulated in order to prevent future tragedies. In this case, his worst case scenario was quickly realized by a reality show gone wrong involving a team of young superheroes. 

On the other, we had Captain America, who felt that such sweeping legislation was a violation of civil liberties, and a generally slippery slope. The heroes of the Marvel Universe took sides, did a fair amount of soul-searching, and went at each other. We’ve already seen Steve Rogers take a similar stance in CaptainAmerica: The Winter Soldier, so suddenly, the central conflict of Civil Wardoesn’t seem like it’s all that far out of the realm of possibility.

Before this announcement, the general consensus among fans was that the general trajectory of the Marvel Cinematic Universe from Phase Two to Phase Three was easy to predict. After Avengers: Age of Ultron, we'll get more Thanos in Guardians of the Galaxy 2, and that will lead nicely into an Infinity Gauntlet inspired Avengers 3, which would also serve as a possible farewell to many of the core Avengers at the end of their six movie contracts.

Well, Civil War throws all of that into complete disarray. While conventional wisdom has dictated that the logical extension of Captain America: The WinterSoldierwould be some variation on the "Death of Captain America" (and the introduction of Bucky Barnes as Cap), there's no reason Civil Warcan't get us there, either. In terms of timing, both of those storylines were nicely intertwined. But there is now virtually no way that the main Avengers roster emerges from Captain America 3 unscathed, and that also means that there's far less chance that Avengers 3 is going to be any kind of "traditional" Avengers movie, either. One way or another, it's a safe bet that somebody else will be holding the shield for at least a little while, as Chris Evans hasn't seemed terribly keen on marrying himself to Steve Rogers for another decade. 

And while Cap’s civil libertarian stance was nicely established in Captain America: The Winter Soldier, it looks like the seeds of Tony Stark’s plan will be sown in Avengers: Age of Ultron. All you have to do is look at the official synopsis of that film:

When Tony Stark tries to jumpstart a dormant peacekeeping program, things go awry and Earth’s Mightiest Heroes, including Iron Man, Captain America, Thor, The Incredible Hulk, Black Widow and Hawkeye, are put to the ultimate test as the fate of the planet hangs in the balance. As the villainous Ultron emerges, it is up to The Avengers to stop him from enacting his terrible plans, and soon uneasy alliances and unexpected action pave the way for an epic and unique global adventure.

It's not a huge leap from Tony's good intentions backfiring to him deciding to usehis considerable fortune and political influence to help prevent such meddling from screwing up the world again. We're left with a relatively maverick Captain America on a collision course with a paternalistic superhero nanny-state creating Tony Stark. On paper, it makes some sense.

The key here is going to be making Tony Stark's position sympathetic, something which the Mark Millar/Steve McNiven comic never quite managed to do (although the argument can be made that Stark was mostly doing damage control for an imperfect law). Marvel's entire marketing campaign hinged on a "whose side are you on" tagline, despite the fact that anyone with a functioning soul was firmly in Captain America's corner by about page six.

With that tension established in Avengers: Age of Ultron, and the ultimate conflict playing out in Captain America 3 the following summer, there's little chance of an immediate resolution or happy ending in Captain America 3. As the only other Marvel film to currently have anything close to an official release date (it's all but certain that Doctor Strange is the July 8th, 2016 film), and with characters like Black Panther and Carol Danvers/Captain Marvel reportedly eyed for solo films of their own (it's all but certain that we'll see Black Panther), much of Marvel's Phase Three could very well be spent building to an Avengers3 more in line with the aesthetic of the current New Avengers comic (headlined prominently by both Doctor Strange and Black Panther), while Thanos waits in the wings for a later film that will ultimately reunite the core cast for the biggest movie of them all.

While it's speculation, it's not the wildest. Kevin Feige has a Marvel plan that stretches at least until 2020 (with dates already staked out through May of 2019). Varietybelieves that part of the reason for Robert Downey Jr's beefed up role in Captain America 3 was simply to find a way to keep him involved in as many Marvel films as possible without the necessity of having him carry an Iron Man 4(or 5, or 6). Come to think of it, Tony Stark: Director of SHIELD has a nice ring to it...

And while there's no doubt that Downey is the heart of this entire franchise, guys like Chris Evans and Hemsworth have carved out a nice chunk of the fanbase for themselves. The longer they can be seen as involved (and the only thing better than a big sendoff is a big return), the more secure the suits are gonna feel. As Marvel begins to branch out into lesser known characters in their stable, it will help to keep the big guns under contract both to add a little name recognition where necessary, or to step back in for a film of their own should the line start to falter.

Wherever Captain America 3 leaves the characters, there's now also talk that the Russo Bros will move from this film on to even bigger things with Avengers 3  and Avengers 4. If Captain America 3 is the movie that sets the tone for all of Phase Three, then letting these guys helm its two logical follow-ups makes perfect sense. Then again, as Edgar Wright can tell you, Marvel aren't shy about shuffling directors when the mood strikes them. 

Now, here’s the even trickier part. There has been considerable noise about the possibility that the increasingly rudderless Amazing Spider-Man franchise over at Sony is in trouble, and that to breathe some life into it, they're going to allow Marvel to utilize the character in some capacity in future Marvel Universe films. This seems extraordinarily unlikely on its surface, and I'm probably going to continue to dismiss it as garbled, unreliable nonsense until proven otherwise.

But the timing of this Civil War news comes right on the heels of all that Marvel/Sony/Spidey chatter. It's almost certainly a coincidence. However, Spider-Man was a crucial part of the Civil War comic, who found himself torn between both sides of the conflict (and ultimately, an ill-advised public unmasking). Even if Marvel got the film rights to Spidey back tomorrow, it would be tough to justify Peter Parker's inclusion in Captain America 3. 

But that core conflict of ideals doesn't have to play out on the scale that the comic book did, nor does it require every Marvel superhero to make an appearance. In fact, it may be better if it doesn't. Despite its lofty ambitions and political pretensions, Civil War quickly collapsed under its own weight. If Marvel have proven anything recently it’s that they have the ability to boil these stories and characters down to their essence, magnify what works, and discard the rest. The basic clash of ideologies between Tony Stark and Steve Rogers doesn’t necessarily need to involve an entire team of Avengers (although we wouldn’t rule out a few more high-profile co-stars both from the existing franchises and Marvel's television and Netflix projects) in order to create the necessary dramatic tension.

Really, though, it will all be worth it if we get to see this scene realized on screen.

Captain America 3 will hit theaters on May 6th, 2016. 

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