Captain America: Civil War and the Future of Marvel Phase Three

Warning: contains potential spoilers for a number of Marvel Phase Three films.

It’s difficult to qualify any comic book related announcement as a “bombshell” these days. They all stoke a virtually identical amount of outrage and/or excitement on the internet. But when word got out that Robert Downey Jr. would take on a signficant role in Captain America 3, and when that film's title was confirmed as Captain America: Civil War, well, you can imagine how excited fans might get. And there’s good reason, too...

Captain America: Civil War lands one year after Avengers: Age of Ultron, on May 6th, 2016. It also falls two years before the next central Marvel film, Avengers: Infinity War - Part I, which won't arrive until May of 2018. As what will certainly be the last time we're likely to see Iron Man and Captain America on screen together for at least that two-year period, this looks like the movie that will truly set Marvel's Phase Three in motion. 

Just a little background for the uninitiated, Civil War was a massive comic book event that spanned dozens of Marvel Comics titles between 2006 and 2007. It is exactly what that title indicates: a civil war between the heroes of the Marvel Universe. On one side, we had Tony Stark, who, with the best of intentions, gets behind a government mandated superhuman registration act in an attempt to get costumed adventurers regulated, purportedly preventing future tragedies. In this case, his worst case scenario was quickly realized by a reality show gone wrong involving a team of young superheroes. 

On the other, we had Captain America, who felt that such sweeping legislation was a violation of civil liberties, and a generally slippery slope. The heroes of the Marvel Universe took sides, did a fair amount of soul-searching, and went at each other. We’ve already seen Steve Rogers take a similar stance in CaptainAmerica: The Winter Soldier, so suddenly, the central conflict of Civil Warmakes perfect sense in the context of the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

While conventional wisdom has dictated that the logical extension of Captain America: The Winter Soldier would be some variation on the "Death of Captain America" (and the introduction of Bucky Barnes as Cap), there's no reason Civil War can't get us there, too. In terms of timing, both of those storylines were nicely intertwined. Kevin Feige has already confirmed that there's going to be a major roster shake-up at the conclusion of Avengers: Age of Ultron, and that's now only going to get compounded by whatever we see in Captain America: Civil War. But there is now virtually no way that the main Avengers roster emerges from Captain America 3 unscathed, and that also means that there's far less chance that Avengers: The Infinity War Part I (for this is now how Avengers 3 and Avengers 4 are going to play out) is going to be any kind of "traditional" Avengers movie, either. One way or another, it's a safe bet that somebody else will be holding the shield in that one (it could be Bucky Barnes, or The Falcon, as we've seen in recent comics), as Chris Evans hasn't seemed terribly keen on marrying himself to Steve Rogers for another decade. 

And while Cap’s civil libertarian stance was nicely established in Captain America: The Winter Soldier, it looks like the seeds of Tony Stark’s plan will be sown in Avengers: Age of Ultron. If that trailer didn't give you enough hints that things are starting to go wrong for Tony Stark and superheroes in general, all you have to do is look at the official synopsis of that film:

When Tony Stark tries to jumpstart a dormant peacekeeping program, things go awry and Earth’s Mightiest Heroes, including Iron Man, Captain America, Thor, The Incredible Hulk, Black Widow and Hawkeye, are put to the ultimate test as the fate of the planet hangs in the balance. As the villainous Ultron emerges, it is up to The Avengers to stop him from enacting his terrible plans, and soon uneasy alliances and unexpected action pave the way for an epic and unique global adventure.

It's not a huge leap from Tony's good intentions backfiring to him deciding to usehis considerable fortune and political influence to help prevent such meddling from screwing up the world again. We're left with a relatively maverick Captain America on a collision course with a paternalistic superhero nanny-state creating Tony Stark. On paper, it makes some sense.

The key here is going to be making Tony Stark's position sympathetic, something which the Mark Millar/Steve McNiven comic never quite managed to do (although the argument can be made that Stark was mostly doing damage control for an imperfect law). Marvel's entire marketing campaign hinged on a "whose side are you on" tagline, despite the fact that anyone with a functioning soul was firmly in Captain America's corner by about page six.

With that tension established in Avengers: Age of Ultron, and the ultimate conflict playing out in Captain America 3 the following summer, there's little chance of an immediate resolution or happy ending in Captain America: Civil War. In fact, much of Marvel's Phase Three is spent either wrapping up current franchises (with Civil War and Thor: Ragnarok) and introducing new characters such as Doctor Strange and Black Panther. In fact, Black Panther (played by Chadwick Boseman) is going to make his first Marvel Cinematic Universe appearance in Captain America: Civil War.

Varietybelieves that part of the reason for Robert Downey Jr's beefed up role in Captain America 3 was simply to find a way to keep him involved in as many Marvel films as possible without the necessity of having him carry an Iron Man 4(or 5, or 6). Come to think of it, Tony Stark: Director of SHIELD has a nice ring to it...

And while there's no doubt that Downey is the heart of this entire franchise, guys like Chris Evans and Hemsworth have carved out a nice chunk of the fanbase for themselves. The longer they can be seen as involved (and the only thing better than a big sendoff is a big return), the more secure the suits are gonna feel. As Marvel begins to branch out into lesser known characters in their stable, it will help to keep the big guns under contract both to add a little name recognition where necessary, or to step back in for a film of their own should the line start to falter.

Wherever Captain America 3 leaves the characters, there's now also talk that the Russo Bros will move from this film on to even bigger things with Avengers 3  and Avengers 4. If Civil War is the movie that sets the tone for all of Phase Three, then letting these guys helm its two logical follow-ups makes perfect sense. Then again, as Edgar Wright can tell you, Marvel aren't shy about shuffling directors when the mood strikes them. 

Now, here’s the tricky part. There has been considerable noise about the possibility that the increasingly rudderless Amazing Spider-Man franchise over at Sony is in trouble, and that to breathe some life into it, they're going to allow Marvel to utilize the character in some capacity in future Marvel Universe films. This seems extraordinarily unlikely on its surface, but at the event announcing the Marvel Phase Three schedule, it was said to be "rumor for now." That "for now" is going to drive fans crazy over the next year. We'll have to assume, though, that Spider-Man won't be showing up here, even though he was a crucial part of the Civil War comic, who found himself torn between both sides of the conflict (and ultimately, an ill-advised public unmasking). 

But if Spidey isn't in it, who is? Could Black Panther serve as the new hero substitute for Spidey, in this case? It seems unlikely, given that T'Challa is a regal figure. In fact, Kevin Feige described Black Panther as"a bit of a prince, he may even become a bit of a king, but it’s all about how this isolationist country meets the world. Maybe it goes well, maybe it doesn’t." Yeah, well...we suspect it doesn't go all that well. Call it a hunch.

Ultimately, while Spider-Man was an interesting inclusion in the story, he isn't necessarily an integral one. That core conflict of ideals between Steve and Tony doesn't have to play out on the scale that the comic book did, nor does it require every Marvel superhero to make an appearance. In fact, it may be better if it doesn't. Spidey has an iconic moment in the comic book story, but he's no more crucial to it than Reed Richards, and we know darn well we won't see him any time soon.

Despite its lofty ambitions and political pretensions, the comic book version of Civil War quickly collapsed under its own weight. If Marvel have proven anything recently it’s that they have the ability to boil these stories and characters down to their essence, magnify what works, and discard the rest. The basic clash of ideologies between Tony Stark and Steve Rogers doesn’t necessarily need to involve an entire team of Avengers in order to create the necessary dramatic tension.  But for now, it's a safe bet that in addition to Cap, Iron Man, and Black Panther, we'll have the Falcon, the Winter Soldier, and probably Hawkeye and Black Widow along for the ride, not to mention any super-powered characters from Agents of SHIELD or even Daredevil.

Really, though, it will all be worth it if we get to see this scene realized on screen.

Captain America: Civil War will hit theaters on May 6th, 2016.  You can see the complete Marvel release calendar right here.

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