The DGA has picked their five favorite directorial efforts of 2013. What does this mean about any's, including Gravity's, Oscar chances?
We have heard from the Screen Actors Guild, the Producers Guild, and the Writers Guild, but the Directors Guild remains one of the most stalwart and reliable—along with the PGA—at predicting Academy Award nominees and particularly winners.
So all eyes in Hollywood were on the DGA today as they announced their five candidates for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in a Feature:
ALFONSO CUARÓN
Gravity
(Warner Bros. Pictures)
PAUL GREENGRASS
Captain Phillips
(Columbia Pictures)
STEVE McQUEEN
12 Years A Slave
(Fox Searchlight Pictures)
DAVID O. RUSSELL
American Hustle
(Columbia Pictures)
MARTIN SCORSESE
The Wolf of Wall Street
(Paramount Pictures)
The five candidates selected here are not necessarily surprising, as the DGA tends to nominate films with more technical prowess than the Academy, which is why a showy director like Alfonso Cuarón may be nominated more easily here over Academy-friendly choices like Alexander Payne, who’s Nebraska is conspicuously absent from the above list. Similarly, Woody Allen’s well-received Blue Jasmine was not included, but Allen tends to be recognized more for his writing than direction as of late, and will almost certainly earn a Best Original Screenplay Academy Award nomination to go along with his WGA nod. However, his notorious apathy for awards season, which made him a no-show to accept his Best Original Screenplay wins including for an Oscar in 2011 for Midnight in Paris, which he also received Best Directing nominations from the Academy and DGA for, may indicate why awards bodies feel little need to honor his empty chair.
Also missing are the Coen Brothers who have, probably to the chagrin of the dual auteurs, become something of an awards darling pair since No Country For Old Men swept them a number of plaudits in 2007, including for Best Picture and Best Director at the Oscars, as well as the Outstanding Directorial Achievement in a Feature title from the DGA. Perhaps Inside Llewyn Davis’ slight, apprehensive tone will make it less appealing to awards voters, albeit, they too could conceivably get in a fifth directorial slot on Oscar night over the special effects laden brilliance found in Gravity. Still, the DGA recognition of Gravity, along with the PGA, will go a long way to push the visually savvy film into a Best Director slot and a guaranteed Best Picture spot at the Oscars. However, it will remain a long shot for a win in either category with Academy-friendly choices like 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle bristling for momentum.
Speaking of American Hustle, this also marks an interesting turn given that the DGA snubbed David O. Russell last year for his well-received Silver Linings Playbook, which took home the Academy Award for Best Actress in a Lead Role for Jennifer Lawrence. Indeed, last year was something of a rogue year for the DGA when they nominated only TWO of the five nominees that the Academy saw fit to recognize: Ang Lee (Life of Pi) and Steven Spielberg (Lincoln). In fact, the DGA more or less thumbed their noses at the Academy’s now-infamous oversight of Ben Affleck for Best Director, when the DGA awarded his effort on Argo last year, helping pave the way in momentum for Argoto win Best Picture at the Oscars. However, by and large, the DGA has been simpatico with the Academy in their choices, having had an unbroken bond of picking the same director winners between 2003 and 2011. The Directors Guild even, like the Academy, failed to award Martin Scorsese’s mastery until 2006 for The Departed. The Wolf of Wall Street, for the record, marks Scorsese’s eleventh nomination from the DGA (other nominations include Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, Goodfellas, The Age of Innocence, Gangs of New York, The Aviator,and Hugo). Given the mixed outrage toward Wolf of Wall Street, including from Academy voters, it is doubtful that this uninhibited and remoreless style from Scorsese will pick up any major wins. If the Academy and DGA want to recognize a snarky, fourth-wall breaking period piece with pop song scoring and voice over narration, Russell's star-studded (and warmly fuzzier) American Hustleseems like a safer bet, if but only Sony could wage a successful Best Picture campaign this century.
So ultimately, the DGA remains a fantastic barometer to measure who will walk away with the gold for Best Director on Oscar night, as well as who will also most likely take Best Picture, which has nearly always matched the DGA’s directorial choice for 12 years on now (save for the political split year of Brokeback Mountain). Thus, keep an eye out for who the guild blocks towards a win.
And for those interested, here is our ranking for 2013 offerings.